The Salon Talk – Lessons Learned From History That Apply to Economics & Investments Today

Members of The Salon were treated to an interesting and humorous talk by Justin Urquhart Stewart, an investment manager and business commentator this week. Justin is one of the best known and most trusted financial commentators in the UK on radio, television and in newspapers.

Justin was the co-founder of 7 Investment Management in 2001, building it up to £15 billion funds under management before his retirement in 2019. He is now the Chairman and Co-founder of Regionally, innovating new investment services to the regions.

Opening his talk, Justin took the audience back in time to the Roman era, comparing investment with today, commenting, “There was still fraud back then and the Greeks did it with such style. There were no bank scandals you were just killed! We can learn a lot from history.”

Justin thinks the solution to levelling up is for local people to invest in local businesses. He said, “There’s no shortage of money. There are a lot of positive things going on in universities and technology hubs in the UK. There are high tech businesses in business parks where they are breeding such as Silicon Roundabout in London, Silicon Fen in Cambridge and Silicon Beach in Brighton. The problem is we are good at setting up businesses (better than France and Germany put together) but bad at growing them and allowing private equity firms to buy them and sell them to America.”

“Politicians don’t understand and don’t wait for them to sort out the economy” Justin exclaimed. His forecast is that this year will be difficult and next year will be better with inflation coming down. The UK economy is growing despite Brexit, the war in Ukraine and the pandemic. Justin predicts however there will be a low recession later this year.

Justin’s big piece of advice is that we should think about managing our money across our generations in our families.

Afterwards Justin took questions from the members about Crypto currency, interest rates, the new African currency, buy to let properties and commodities. Justin’s review of Crypto is it “load of shambles and if you don’t understand don’t use it as it is not properly regulated” and his forecast for interest rates will be a quarter or half percent increase to stamp on inflation but next year we will see a cut again. In the long term Justin said it will run at between 3-4%.

The next breakfast The Salon talk will be Wednesday 15 February when the speaker will be Professor Chris Bones, Emeritus Professor and former Dean at Henley Business School. He is currently Chair of the Chartered Institute of Legal Executives and his career has taken him across the corporate, political and academic worlds. Chris will be sharing his thoughts on ethics in modern society and whether we have lost our collective moral compass.

If you are interested in attending a Salon event, email salon@therelaisretreats.com